Bullpen Adjustment Calculator

Result definition

This page calculates Bullpen-adjusted total from the visible Baseline full-game run projection and Selected bullpen runs above average entries. The output applies only to the scenario and market boundaries stated on the form.

After documenting bullpen-adjusted total, the Total Bases Prop can answer another question.

As a practical check, supporting rows should reconcile with the same entries as the headline.

Input scope and units

• Label Baseline full-game run projection as observed, quoted, or projected. Its role is game total before bullpen adjustment.
• For the selected event, use a current source for Selected bullpen runs above average. Here it means expected additional runs from one bullpen.
• Opponent bullpen runs above average records expected additional runs from the other bullpen.
• Expected bullpen share belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected innings handled by relievers.
• Market total belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is sportsbook game total.
• Run standard deviation belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected variation.

For this market, keep the new answer beside the baseline.

Checks the arithmetic cannot perform

In the current scenario, a pitcher or lineup change can invalidate a projection before the posted price visibly moves.

The pitcher strikeouts prop portion belongs in Pitcher Strikeouts Prop rather than altering an unrelated field here.

As a practical check, the worked values provide a repeatable test after a formula change.

For the Bullpen Adjustment Calculator, these figures provide a concrete calculation path. They are not selected to make either side of a market attractive.

Applying the Bullpen Adjustment rule: adjusted total = baseline + bullpen run adjustments scaled by expected innings.

Probability over line is 57.48%. Bullpen adjustment is 0.19 runs.

For this comparison, reproduction confirms arithmetic, not event assumptions.

How to read the result

In this model, keep a quoted price and model probability clearly labeled.

Open NRFI and YRFI Probability when the analysis reaches nrfi and yrfi probability after recording the current Bullpen-adjusted total.

Preserve the baseline

For this market, keep source revisions and market moves as different update reasons.

Limits of the estimate

Bullpen availability and pitcher selection can change before first pitch.

At this stage, a precise answer does not reduce uncertainty in undocumented inputs.

Practical questions