Betting Risk of Ruin Calculator

The question behind the result

The requested output is estimated ruin risk. The page is intended to estimate fixed-stake bankroll failure risk under repeated independent bets. For the saved case, the output describes an entered scenario and is not a guarantee.

Sizing reacts sharply to probability error, correlated wagers, and repeatability assumptions.

Moving to closing line value changes scope. Open the Closing Line Value.

A personal exposure cap can be lower than the mathematical stake.

At this stage, use an executable price for the exact selection and stake, not an earlier screenshot or an unavailable best quote.

Under the entered assumptions, cash, restricted credit, gross return, and net profit may require separate accounting.

Use the Bankroll Growth only after deciding that bankroll growth belongs in the analysis.

How to source the fields

• Bankroll records starting bankroll.
• Stake per wager is a separate input defined as fixed amount risked per bet.
• Estimated win rate is a separate input defined as expected long-run win percentage.
• For this market, check the timestamp and unit for Average decimal odds because it supplies average price received.

For the selected event, a correct unit can still be incompatible when participant, period, or settlement basis differs.

Calculation method and assumptions

The recommendation follows a policy under the entered odds and win rate.

Fractional sizing or a cap can reduce sensitivity to error.

In this model, supporting rows should reconcile with the same entries as the headline.

Change one assumption at a time

Lower estimated win probability before accepting the stake or growth path.

Compare the baseline with a capped or fractional policy.

A longer losing-sequence case provides a cautious boundary.

For this comparison, the worked values provide a repeatable test after a formula change.

For the Betting Risk of Ruin Calculator, the values below differ from the form defaults. As a practical check, they make the method checkable and do not describe a recommended or typical wager.

Bankroll is $2,240. Stake per wager is $36.4. Estimated win rate is 56.7%. Average decimal odds is 2.177.

Applying the Betting Risk of Ruin rule: risk estimate uses bankroll units and expected value per wager.

Bankroll units is 61.5. Expected return per unit is 23.44%. Break-even rate is 45.93%.

For this estimated ruin risk example, a mismatch usually comes from units, rounding, a sign error, or a different option selection. For the selected event, check those items first.

In this model, reproduction confirms arithmetic, not event assumptions.

How to read the result

Treat the stake or growth figure as a policy output, not a command.

A worse probability case shows how quickly it contracts.

On this page, keep a quoted price and model probability clearly labeled.

A betting middle question belongs in the Betting Middle, not as an adjustment here.

Limits of the estimate

Real wagers are not perfectly independent and win rate can change.

Within this calculation, review promotion terms, limits, push treatment, void rules, and whether stake is returned before comparing profit.

In the current scenario, a precise answer does not reduce uncertainty in undocumented inputs.

Preserve the baseline

Store estimated ruin risk with event, selection, compared line, time, and source for Bankroll.

When using the result, preserve the first answer when Average decimal odds changes.

In this model, do not overwrite the old case during a one-field test.

Practical questions